Agroclimatic monitoring and current trends in agroclimatic resources in the neighboring regions of Russia and Kazakhstan

Abstract

The article presents the results of monitoring agroclimatic
resources in the main grain-producing adjacent regions of Russia and Kazakhstan
for the period from 1976 to 2024. The monitoring was carried out on the basis of
the Climate-Soil-Yield simulation system using surface air temperature and total
precipitation with a monthly resolution. The estimates were obtained based on data
from 17 meteorological stations in Russia and 8 stations in the Northern
Kazakhstan. Updated estimates of thermal and humidity resource trends were
provided. It was shown that the estimates of the growth rate for sum of active
temperatures in the macroregion remain positive, but significantly lower than in
Russia as a whole. At some observation points, a statistically significant increase in
spring precipitation was recorded. No significant trends in summer precipitation
were revealed. The paper presents the results of agroclimatic monitoring in 2024,
including expected estimates of the climate-depended yield of spring wheat and the
bioclimatic potential in the macroregion. It was shown that despite the observed
changes, the agroclimatic potential of the macroregion remains significant.