Extreme climate events under observed and projected climate change

Abstract

Under conditions of global waпning, extreme climate events are becoming more frequent and more intense. These processes indicate significant changes in the dynamics of climate extremes and create new risks f or natural and socio-economic systems. Тhе damage caused Ьу climate-related disasters is reflected in substantial economic losses, the destruction of infrastructure, reduced agricultural productivity, and increased threats to human health and life. Numerous analyses of currently observed changes in hydrometeorological parameters, presented in scientific puЫications, reports, and review papers, convincingly demonstrate а link between the rising frequency and intensity of extreme climate events and the accelerating расе of global waпning in the twenty-first century. Тhis conclusion - regarding the increase in the number and severity of extreme climate events, including in the coming decades - is further supported Ьу extensive results from physical-dynamical climate models under arюus warmшg scenaпos. he aim of this review article is to synthesize current scientific understanding of the dynamics of extreme climate events under observed and projected climate change, as well as to assess their future evolution with consideration of regional characteristics. Тhе paper discusses approaches to defining extreme climate events and their classification Ьу event type. It also presents selected methods and results of empirical-statistical analyses of climate data used to investigate extreme events, provides an overview of global trends in their changes, and examines specific features of their manifestation across the territory of the Russian Federation. In addition, projections of future extreme events under continued global temperature rise are presented based on simulations from global climate models.