Thematic evolution of studies on climate change influence on the water resources state (publications of 2010-2024)

Abstract

Assessment of a thematic direction development implicating the
diachronic analysis is a methodically complete research problem. With the “climate
change and water resources” leading frontier2) as an example with the help of
science-of-science approaches and scientometric instruments, the article proposes
and test a method of subject-matter analysis. This article’s objective is to state the
logic of the frontier thematic evolution and to forecast its further development. To
do this, I have analyzed the publication activities dynamics in respect of the
“climate change and water resources” theme and have revealed national (Russian)
and world factors that influence these dynamics. The proposed analysis includes
quantitative estimation of the publications (citation rate) and it focuses on the
revealing and interpretation of factors that form the research landscape.
Based on bibliometric analysis, big data analysis, and a literature review
using the Russian Science Citation Index's advanced search and neurosearch tools,
the study evaluated the publication activity of 15 leading Russian journals covering
this topic from 2010 to 2024. The methodology includes the systematization and
scientific interpretation of data (including bibliometric elements) and the

contextual analysis of the impact of external events (political initiatives and climate
challenges).
I have plotted a graph, which illustrate the publication activity dynamics in
respect of the “water climate impact on water resources” over the 2010-2024
period. Analysis of quantitative changes of the publication flow indicates rising of
the academic community interest to these subjects. Thematic analysis enables to
assess changes in priorities and emergence of novel specialized studies directions.
Geographic analysis reflects coverage of territories and this provides an
opportunity not only specify appearing tendencies but to see further development
of studies. The results show that the “climate change and water resources” subject
is not a priority in Russian water titles. Nevertheless, the growing interest to the
issues of water bodies climatic adaptation is obvious and this is confirmed by the
increase of the number of publications and the shift of emphasis towards
technological, strategic, and eco/system decisions accompanied with enhancement
of inter-disciplinary interaction.