Global climate and cyclonic activity in the Black Sea-Mediterranean region

Посвящается светлой памяти выдающегося климатолога, заведующего отделом мониторинга и вероятностного проноза климата Института глобального климата и экологии имени академика Ю.А. Израэля, старшего научного сотрудника лаборатории климатологии Инсти- тута географии РАН, кандидата физико-математических наук Михаила Юрьевича Бардина

Abstract

Currently, despite the impressive number of studies of cyclonic
activity, there is no systematic understanding of the patterns of its variability. The
paper provides an overview of the current state of research on climate variability
and changes on a global and regional scale from the point of view of understanding
the role and patterns of natural and anthropogenic factors in the variability of
cyclonic activity in the Black Sea-Mediterranean region. Natural climate factors are
manifested in quasi-periodic variability on scales from interannual to multidecadal.
The influence of anthropogenic factors is considered in terms of linear trends
associated with global climate warming and in climate scenarios of anthropogenic
emissions for the 21st century. The following main conclusions are drawn.
Interannual variability in cyclonic activity is determined by the contribution of the
North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic oscillation, the El Niño – Southern
Oscillation (which is characterized by different central and eastern types of El Niño
and La Niña events), and other interannual quasi-periodic signals. The contribution
of 15 climate signals, taking into account only linear synchronous manifestations,
to the variability of the frequency of cyclones in the Black Sea-Mediterranean
region ranges from 60% to 75% in the winter-spring period and on annual average.
Lower-frequency processes are manifested in a change in the sign of anomalies in
cyclone parameters during the phase change of the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the middle of 1970s and 1990s,
the contribution of which explains from 20% to 70% of the dispersion of cyclone
parameters in the cold half-year. Due to climate warming, the observed trend of
decreasing cyclonic activity in the Black Sea-Mediterranean region is expected to
continue according to climate scenarios in the 21st century, especially in the southeast
of the region, while the number of summer cyclones increases. The number of

extreme cyclones and associated cases of heavy rainfall and strong winds also
increases, especially along the northern coast of the region. The presented scientific
review will be useful for anyone who is interested in anomalies of the climate and
natural environment of the Black Sea-Mediterranean region.