Features of the temperature regime at the surface of the Globe in 2025. The current state of global warming

Abstract

The paper analyzes the state of the temperature regime at the Earth’s
surface in 2025 and its variability over the period 1850-2025, with a focus on the
current state of global warming. As usual, four datasets on near-surface temperatures
are used: the basic array of station observations from the IGCE: T3288(land) and
gridded data from the UK: CRUTEM5(land), HadSST4(sea), and HadCRUT5
(land+sea). Additionally, some estimates of the variability of the accompanying
precipitation regime are considered, based on the array of monthly precipitation totals R1383 from the GCCM database. All data are extended through December 2025 and
expressed as anomalies relative to the 1991-2020 baseline period.
According to the annual mean data from IGCE, 2025 was the second warmest
year since 1901; according to Hadley/CRU data, it was the third warmest. The
global near-surface temperature anomaly (HadCRUT5 dataset, land+sea) in 2025
was +0.445°C, which is 0.152°C below the 2024 record (+0.597°C) and 1.280°C
above the pre-industrial average (1850-1900, -0.835°C). The seasons were also
extremely warm (rank no higher than third).
The continuous period of 5% monthly heat extremes (global temperature
above the 95th percentile) lasted for more than three consecutive years: from
December 2022 to December 2025 (these 3 years (2023, 2024, 2025) were the
warmest in the history of observations since 1850). During this time, temperature
records were broken for all months except March (the record of +0.616°C was set
in March 2016 and remains valid to this day). Among the regions, the northern part
of the Pacific Ocean (20-65°N) stands out, where regional records were broken ‒
both for the annual average and for all four seasons.
To characterize the current state of global warming, this article, in addition to
monitoring data, uses estimates of moving averages and trends calculated over a
wide range of timescales (from 10 to 100 years) and presented as two-dimensional
diagrams (length of the assessment period vs. end year of the period). Such a
diagram contains estimates of the state of the analyzed value at any moment in the
20th-21st centuries and creates a complete picture of the time structure of its
changes. The article presents estimates for three regions: the globe (land), Russia,
and Moscow Station earlier than the late 1970s, there is an upward temperature trend, statistically
significant after 1990 for periods longer than 20-30 years. Moving averages of the
same scale will cross the baseline (the average of the entire series) after a few steps
(but no earlier than 1990) and will not return to it until the end (2025). This means
that modern global warming began in the late 1970s, became global by 1990, and is
currently ongoing and showing no signs of abating. The conclusion applies to all
three regions, although in Russia (and even more noticeably in Moscow) the
reliability of trend estimates (the level of trust) decreases with increasing period. In
the last 30-40 years, the warming process has been more active in Russia and
Moscow. Thus, by now, 30-year average anomalies (relative to 1991-2020) over the
global land area have barely reached 0.6-0.7°C, over Russia they have exceeded
0.95°C, and in Moscow they have already reached 1.6°C).
In terms of annual precipitation totals from 1901 to 2025, the direction of
change in the regions examined (West Siberia, Russia, Moscow) is generally similar
and consistent with temperature changes. The increase in precipitation after 2005 is
confirmed by both diagrams: the average is greater than 100%, and the trends on 30-
to 60-year timescales are positive, statistically significant at the 5% level.
For Moscow, trends are statistically insignificant on all time scales.