Dependence of temperature sensitivity of lightning and wildfire frequency on the type of external forcing on the Earth system as based on IAP RAS model simulations

Abstract

We conducted numerical experiments for the 1850-2014 period
using the IAP RAS Earth System model of intermediate complexity (IAP RAS
EMIC) under various types of external forcing. We prescribed all forcings
according to the protocol of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6
(CMIP6) "historical" experiment. For 1997-2013, the model realistically
reproduces the lightning flash frequency (LFF) ‒ both global values and spatial
distribution ‒ as compared to the Lightning Imaging Sensor/Optical Transient
Detector (LIS/OTD) satellite data. However, the model captures the global
sensitivity coefficient of the LFR to surface air temperature changes only in
specific regions and only in the simulations driven by tropospheric anthropogenic
(sulfate) aerosol concentrations. The IAP RAS EMIC simulates the annual wildfire
(WF) burned area with errors in some regions. The model is most skillful in
reproducing the sensitivity of the WF burned area to LFF changes in experiments
under anthropogenic forcing.