Main causes of changes in the Caspian Sea level

Abstract

The paper presents a brief overview of current understanding of the
main causes of Caspian Sea level changes that occur as a result of disruption of the
sea's water balance. The main cause of changes in the sea's water balance is
regional climate change in the Caspian Sea region and in the vast catchment area of
the sea. It includes changes in precipitation, evaporation, river runoff, and runoff
into the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay. Other causes discussed in the literature are also
considered: cosmogeophysical, geological-geodynamic, and anthropogenic. The
chronology of Caspian Sea level changes shows that its level is difficult to predict
for the long term, despite its fairly simple water balance. Due to the enormous
ecological and economic significance of long-term changes in the Caspian Sea
level, its forecast for the coming decades remains a strategic task in the context of
the ongoing sea level decline that began in 1995-1996. The drop in the sea level by
about 2.7 m has already led to tangible environmental and socio-economic
consequences for all Caspian countries.