Природные пожары: данные наблюдений и моделирование
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21513/2410-8758-2020-3-73-119Ключевые слова:
Природные пожары, модели Земной системы, изменения климата, спутниковые данные, эмиссии в атмосферу, углеродный баланс, аэрозоли, метан, биосферно-атмосферное взаимодействиеАннотация
Проведён обзор сведений о природных пожарах (ПП) и анализ современных подходов к моделированию ПП. Особое внимание уделено вопросам включения моделей ПП в глобальные модели Земной системы.
В последние годы по спутниковым данным появилась возможность идентификации даже небольших пожаров (с размером <500 м). Тем не менее, сохраняется значительная неопределённость оценок площади выгорания из- за ПП, а также связанных с ними эмиссий веществ в атмосферу. По наиболее представительным спутниковым данным GFED-4.1 ежегодная площадь выгорания из-за пожаров близка к 5 млн км2, в том числе не менее 2.9 млн км2 из-за собственно природных пожаров. Это приводит к эмиссиям углерода ~ 2 ПгС год-1, в основном в виде СО2. На территории России ежегодная площадь выгорания близка к 135 тыс. км2 с ежегодным выделением в атмосферу 0.12 ПгС год-1. Эти оценки заметно превышают соответствующие оценки Национального доклада о кадастре антропогенных выбросов из источников и абсорбции поглотителями парниковых газов, не регулируемых Монреальским протоколом, за 1990-2015 гг.
Характеристики ПП изменяются при межгодовых вариациях климата, в том числе в годы Эль-Ниньо. При этом по спутниковым данным для последних десятилетий на масштабах от глобального до субконтинентального значимых трендов характеристик ПП не выявлено. По прокси-данным и модельным расчётам выявляются общая интенсификация активности ПП в доиндустриальном голоцене (в том числе при похолодании климата), а также общее увеличение этой активности от холодных стадиалов плейстоцена к тёплым межстадиалам.
В настоящее время схемы расчёта характеристик ПП внедряются в модели Земной системы. Такие схемы учитывают погодные и/или климатические характеристики развития пожаров, количество возгораний в зависимости от характеристик молниевой активности и плотности населения (а иногда и от способа хозяйственной деятельности), ликвидацию (тушение) пожаров соответствующими службами, количество и тип топлива для пожаров, полноту сгорания топлива. Ряд моделей способны воспроизводить динамику отдельных пожаров в упрощённой форме. Однако недостаточность современных знаний о ПП приводит к заметному межмодельному различию даже для воспроизведения многолетних средних характеристик ПП, а также для коэффициентов тренда изменения этих характеристик. В частности, для ХХ века основные межмодельные различия в изменениях характеристик активности ПП обусловлены предположениями о влиянии землепользования на динамику ПП. Таким
образов, требуется дальнейшее развитие этих моделей и уточнение их определяющих параметров.
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