Сценарии антропогенных изменений климатической системы в XXI веке

Авторы

  • С. М. Семенов Институт глобального климата и экологии имени академика Ю.А. Израэля
  • А. А. Гладильщикова

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21513/2410-8758-2022-1-75-106

Ключевые слова:

Климатическая система, антропогенные воздействия, климатически активные вещества, сценарии, глобальный климат, изменения

Аннотация

В прикладных климатологических исследованиях в последние более чем 30 лет возникла и развилась традиция и культура построения сценариев антропогенного воздействия на климатическую систему Земли. Этот междисциплинарный процесс включает в себя построение сценариев социально-экономического развития (с учетом политических, экономических и технологических аспектов), оценку соответствующих изменений в климатообразующих факторах и, далее, оценку собственно изменений климата и их последствий. В данной работе систематически представлены методологиче- ские подходы, которые использовались при построении сценариев, собственно основные группы сценариев, а также некоторые результаты их анализа. Pассмотрены те группы сценариев, которые использовались в научных докладах Mежправительственной группы экспертов по изменению климата (MГЭИК) при оценке возможностей ограничить современное антропогенное изменение климата Земли.

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Опубликован

2022-04-26

Как цитировать

Семенов, С. М., & Гладильщикова, А. А. (2022). Сценарии антропогенных изменений климатической системы в XXI веке. Фундаментальная и прикладная климатология, 8(1), 75–106. https://doi.org/10.21513/2410-8758-2022-1-75-106

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