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Резюме доклада

Национальных академий наук, инженерии и медицины США

здоровье и благосостояние в США»

В 2025 г. Национальными академиями наук, инженерии и медицины

США подготовлен следующий доклад:

Колумбия, США. Мы признательны за это разрешение.

Доклад подготовлен комитетом экспертов, состоящим из представите-

лей научного сообщества США. Тема доклада представляет интерес для рос-

сийских ученых.

«Effects of Human-Caused Greenhouse Gas Emissions on U.S. Climate,

translation with permission from the US National Academy of Sciences, Courtesy of

the National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., USA. We appreciate this permission.

The report was prepared by a committee of experts consisting of

representatives of the USA scientific community. The topic of this report is of

interest to the Russian scientists.

Sergey Semenov,

Editor-in-Chief,

Fundamental and Applied Climatology

Summary

The scientific community has been studying the question of how human-

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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) indicating its intention to rescind

the 2009 Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases

Under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act. Recognizing that significantly more

evidence is available today, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and

Medicine launched this study to review newly available scientific evidence on the

topics considered in the Technical Support Document that EPA prepared in

considering whether to make the finding (see Box 1.2 for the Statement of Task).

The committee’s report focuses on evidence gathered by the scientific community

since the Technical Support Document was published in 2009 and describes

supporting evidence, the level of confidence, and areas that are under continuing

Today, many of EPA’s conclusions are further supported by longer observational

records and multiple new lines of evidence. Moreover, research has uncovered

additional risks that were not apparent in 2009.

This overarching conclusion is supported by the following five conclusions:

(1) Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are increasing

the concentration of these gases in the atmosphere. Human activities, such as the

extraction and burning of fossil fuels, cement and chemical production,

deforestation, and agricultural activities, emit GHGs, which include carbon dioxide

(CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and fluorinated gases (F-gases), to the

atmosphere. Total global GHG emissions continue to increase, even though U.S.

emissions are warming Earth’s surface and changing Earth’s climate. Longer

records, improved and more robust observational networks, and analytical and

methodological advances have strengthened detection of observed changes and

their attribution to elevated GHGs. Trends observed include increases in hot

extremes and extreme single-day precipitation events, declines in cold extremes,

regional shifts in annual precipitation, warming of the Earth’s oceans, a decrease in

ocean pH, rising sea levels, and an increase in wildfire severity.

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(3) Human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases and resulting climate

change harm the health of people in the United States. Climate change

intensifies risks to humans from exposures to extreme heat, ground-level ozone,

insects and in contaminated water — have increased. New evidence is developing

about additional health impacts of climate change, including on mental health,

nutrition, immune health, antimicrobial resistance, kidney disease, and negative

pregnancy-related outcomes. Groups such as older adults, people with preexisting

health conditions or multiple chronic diseases, and outdoor workers are

disproportionately susceptible to climate-associated health effects. Even as non-

climate factors, including adaptation measures, can help people cope with harmful

impacts of climate change, they cannot remove the risk of harm.

(4) Changes in climate resulting from human-caused emissions of

greenhouse gases harm the welfare of people in the United States. Climate-

vary across regions in the United States with some regions showing a decline.

Climate-related changes in the chemistry and the heat content of the ocean are

having negative effects on calcifying organisms and contributing to increases in

harmful algal blooms. U.S. energy systems, infrastructure, and many communities

are experiencing increasing stress and costs owing to the effects of climate change.

(5) Continued emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities will

lead to more climate changes in the United States, with the severity of expected

change increasing with every ton of greenhouse gases emitted. Despite

successful efforts in many parts of the world to reduce emissions, total global GHG

emissions have continued to increase, and additional warming is certain. All

In summary, the committee concludes that the evidence for current and future

harm to human health and welfare created by human-caused GHGs is beyond

scientific dispute. Much of the understanding of climate change that was uncertain or

tentative in 2009 is now resolved and new threats have been identified. These new

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threats and the areas of remaining uncertainty are under intensive investigation by the

scientific community. The United States faces a future in which climate-induced

harm continues to worsen and today’s extremes become tomorrow’s norms.

Резюме

Научное сообщество уже более века изучает вопрос о том, как антропо-

генные выбросы парниковых газов влияют на климат. На сегодняшний день

окружающей среды США (EPA), в котором говорилось о его намерении отме-

нить выводы 2009 года об угрозах и причинах или вкладах парниковых газов

(2009 Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases),

которые содержатся в разделе 202(a) Закона о чистом воздухе (Clean Air Act).

Понимая, что сегодня доступно значительно больше доказательств,

Национальные академии наук, инженерии и медицины начали это исследова-

ние, чтобы проанализировать новые научные данные по темам, рассмотрен-

ным в Техническом документе поддержки (Technical Support Document), на

который опиралось Агентство по охране окружающей среды (EPA) при при-

нятии выводов (см. Box 1.2 в Statement of Task). Настоящий доклад комитета

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США несколько снизились в последние годы, в основном из-за изменений в

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ствиям для сельскохозяйственных культур и животноводства, несмотря на то,

что технологические и другие изменения привели к росту сельскохозяйствен-

ного производства. Изменение климата, включая усиление изменчивости кли-